The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), which outlines Nigeria’s economic benchmarks for the next three years. Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu, stated that the MTEF, developed with input from various stakeholders, distinguishes between target and benchmark oil production.
For the 2026 fiscal year, the FEC approved an exchange rate of ₦1,512 to $1. This projection considers potential election-year pressures on the currency. It’s worth noting that different institutions have varying projections. For instance, Traders Union’s statistical model estimates an average value of USD/NGN at approximately 1,446.11 by the end of 2026, while Citigroup expects the naira to weaken to between N1,650 and N1,700 per dollar by mid-2026.
The government set a target oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day, with a more conservative benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day for budget planning. The benchmark oil price was established at $64.85 per barrel, and inflation is projected to average 18% in 2026.
Total revenue for the Federation in 2026 is estimated at N50.74 trillion, with the Federal Government expected to receive N22.6 trillion. Including revenue from government-owned enterprises, total federal government revenue is projected at N34.33 trillion. Nominal GDP is projected to be N690 trillion in 2026, rising to N890.6 trillion by 2028, with GDP growth expected at 4.6% in 2026. The fiscal deficit for 2026 is estimated at N20.1 trillion, or 3.61% of GDP.
GTN reports that, FEC also approved a $100 million African Development Bank loan to support entrepreneurs and a $50 million Islamic Development Bank financing for an agricultural project in Yobe State. President Tinubu has directed Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to prioritize capital expenditure on growth-enhancing and job-creating projects.
